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Show me another »Do the bbc weather forecasts seem to be wrong a lot of the time?
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Yes, because all weather forecasts seem to be wrong a lot of the time.
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Other Answers (5)
- Aren't most weather forecasts wrong most of the time?
Lets face it, who can predict the future?
I just wish my job would let me be wrong most of the time and just sluff it off to chance.25% 1 Vote - They're not much better in the US. I worked in the Navy weather community for 8 years. Guessing was common.0% 0 Votes
- no knows whats the weather gonna be but the bbc weather i guess is around 90% right at the time..... :)0% 0 Votes
- Having sailed for nearly half a century along the coasts of northern Europe, I have always listened to the BBC shipping forecast, from the Spanish coast of Galicia, to the shores of Norway. But, is their forecast accurate? Not exactly ... and on purpose. During the summer months, any forecast is given worst-case-out in consideration to the many yachtsmen fooling around. This has been the practice since the 1979 Fastnet Race disaster.
But first, what is a "wrong forecast?" If it is for a wind of 20 knots and it is measured to be 21 knots, is it wrong? If the air masses are unstable and there are chances to see thunderstorms developing in the later afternoon, how do you forecast the weather?
For aviators, it is very simple, the TAF (their weather forecast) says for example: 1013 1018 PROB30 TS, which means, on the day 10 between the hours 13 and 18 GMT, 30 percent chances to see thunderstorms developing. Up to the pilot then to take a chance or not.0% 0 Votes - Forecasts are better than people think.
This winter the USA had a large number of huge snowstorms. Just about every weather service gave accurate 5 day advance warnings of these.
Forecasts up to 5 days in advance are generally reasonably accurate over a large region.
However weather can be very local (Ever stood somewhere in the rain and seen somewhere bathed in sunshine on the horizon?), so the weather you experience can be different from the weather a few miles away; that's where they fall down.
The other reason is people really pay little attention to (or remember little of) forecasts; they go on what friends and acquaintances tell them.
If you kept a diary of what the forecast said and what actually happened for a year you'd find that they are mainly right for your region, even taking into account local factors such as above.
But an unexpected change in wind direction for example (hard to predict) can cause some forecasts to turn out wrong.
But some studies suggest an overall success rate of up to 87% for 3-5 days in advance.
Where forecasts do fall down is in predicting long range weather. There are exceptions.
But without trying they'll never improve.
Hurricane forecasts look at ocean temperatures, comparable years, El Nino events and so on, and in recent years have been quite successful.
El Nino/La Nina Events also have some generally predictable consequences, so knowing when one is happening helps countries prepare for them.25% 1 Vote
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